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(Note/Update: This post was written on account on traditional footballing rules which take Goal Difference as the first tiebreaker in case of equal points in a group, which is how it is usually done. But today I came to know that in UEFA’s European Championships of 2012 this is no longer done so in the traditional manner but by a set of new complicated rules which take into account head-to-head results first and then goals scored in head to head matches and so on, complicating everything and worse, denying deserving teams their rightful place. What kind of ridiculous rule is that? If you ask me how a team which scored 5 goals could get eliminated while a team which won only a single match with one goal went through, I don’t know. Better go ask Michel Platini and UEFA which came up with these ***** rules which make no sense in any way. This may be to ensure that “weak” teams get through but we are not here for charity, we are here to watch good football. Weak teams and teams which play boring and stupid football like Greece should be eliminated without mercy. I will not change the post that was written. All final results are based on goal differences and not on previous head to head. May not be concurrent and real, but who cares. No one reads this shit anyway.)
(PS. I would be grateful if anyone could explain what these newfangled rules mean.)
We are all done with the second round of Group Matches in Euro 2012 and thanks to some tight and exciting matches almost everything is still wide open, with only the Republic of Ireland and sadly Sweden being the teams who are positively eliminated. The only other team which does not have any point, the much-fancied Netherlands, incredibly still stands a chance of making it though to the knockout. I am not much for predictions, but all other teams still stand a chance. Let us look at the groups and the standings and see if any kind of predictions will be possible and what the chances will be after Group 2 being over and Group 3 commencing today.
Group A – 4 – 3 – 2 – 1
No, I am not talking about a football formation, but the points in the group. This point structure makes it an open-for-all. Mainly thanks to Poland holding arch-rivals Russia to a draw in a charged encounter. Russia leads the group with 4 points and they meet Greece who are at the bottom with 1 point. A win would see Russia through and a draw would eliminate Greece but still won’t confirm Russia. A Greek win would be fun, which could propel them into the quarterfinals, provided they win with a goal difference of more than 4 with Russia or even if Poland draw with the Czech Republic. Now, between the Poles and the Czech, a win will see either side through no matter what happens in the Russia – Greece encounter, but a draw will complicate things and Poland will most certainly be eliminated and both will be eliminated if the Greeks beat the Russians.
Group B – Wonders Arise!
The Group of Death never ceases to spring surprises and is now poised ominously, cut and dry because there have been no draws in this group so far. The Germans won all their games and have 6 points, but still can be eliminated if Denmark beats them with a goal difference of 2+ and Portugal beats the Netherlands with 2+ goal difference. On the other hand, the Dutch having lost both their games can incredibly still make it if they beat Portugal 2+ and provided Germany beats Denmark. Denmark also need to make sure they win to go through, and the Netherlands must beat Portugal. In this case, Denmark will finish on top of the group. But if draws do arise, then things will get even more complicated. Here are the chances in Group B!
- If both games are drawn: Germany (7 pts) and Portugal (4 pts) will qualify.
- If the Netherlands – Portugal game is drawn: Portugal will go through and Netherlands can wait for their KLM plane home.
- If the Germany – Denmark game is drawn: Germany (7pts) will go through and Denmark will qualify IF the Netherlands beat Portugal. This is also the scenario that would eliminate the Dutch despite a win by them.
This is because Portugal and Denmark are on level on points, goals, goal differences and hence Portugal gets the upper hand because they had beat Denmark in their earlier game. Good to know that Mathematics plays such an important role in football!
Group C – The Pretty Much Clear Group
Reigning champions Spain and Croatia sit pretty on top with 4 points each, while the Republic of Ireland is eliminated. Italy are clutching at straws with 2 points. What is simple in this group and what might work a bit in favor of Italy here is that it is Spain and Croatia who are going to face each other. If Italy win against their old coach’s Irish team they will have a chance of making it provided that the Spain – Croatia game does not end in a draw. In that case it would be goal differences with all teams having 5 points each and to make it here Italy will have to trounce the Irish by at least 3 goals and Croatia will get eliminated. The only way for Spain not to qualify is to lose badly to Croatia. But Italy will still have a chance provided Trapatoni’s boys don’t give the Italians a taste of their own defensive medicine.
Group D – The Not Much More Can Happen Group.
The last group is still exciting but not as much as earlier because Sweden got eliminated. Predictions can be clear cut now with France and England sharing 4 points each and with surprise package co-hosts Ukraine at third place with three points. France plays Ukraine next, the winner takes it all. But when England faces Sweden, a Swedish win can turn the fortunes of the English around. But still, a victory or a draw in their respective matches is enough for both England and France to qualify. If Ukraine wants to get to the quarter finals, they will have to beat England and hope France falls to Sweden. The only way England can be eliminated now is that they lose badly against Ukraine and France defeating Sweden. On the other hand, France can be kicked out if the England – Ukraine game ends in a draw and Sweden trounces France with 5+ goal difference. Quite a tall order, so we can safely say that France has almost made it. But we never know.
